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Saturday, 21 October 2017 07:48 pm

Follow the election here

Sep 22nd, 2017 | By | Category: Editor's Picks, Most Popular, Top Picture

00:33 With 99 per cent of the votes counted, The National  Party may have the most seats in Parliament but it’s New Zealand First which holds the power.

To lead without a coalition, a party must hold 60 seats. That is an impossibility here.

Currently National holds 58 seats, Labour holds 45, The Green Party holds 7, New Zealand First 9 and ACT holds 1.

We know that ACT will support National, so that’s 59 seats. National needs one more seat. It could come from New Zealand First or the Greens.

Labour has a memorandum of understanding with the Greens, making it likely they will in fact align with Labour, taking their combined seats to 52.

Those nine all important New Zealand First seats are going to be the decider. Again.

In 1996 Winston Peters went fishing, effectively holding the country to ransom while he decided who he was going to align with.

In 2017, it’s unlikely that Mr Peters will do the same thing again. However, it’s less clear who he will choose.

It’s been assumed by many that New Zealand First will join forces with National but after a particularly rough campaign for Mr Peters, that saw his personal tax details leaked to the press, as well as the loss of his own electorate seat tonight to National,  perhaps  he may go another way.

00:17  How likely is it that National would work with the Greens?

Speaking with RNZ’s Guyson Espiner, both Russell Norman and Dr Bryce Edwards don’t rule it out.

It’s Dr Edwards’ opinion that National is more likely to be generous towards the Greens than Labour.

Clayton Cosgrove is confident that Winston Peters will not repeat his 1996 fishing trip.

He will weigh up all the options, decide what is best for him and NZ First, then make the announcement.

Mr Cosgrove believes the future for Winston Peters is all about building his legacy.

 

23:55 New Zealand First’s Ria Bond will not be returning as she is #12 on the party list.  Current predictions are that NZ First will only claim 9 seats.

 

23:49 National’s Sarah Dowie has won Invercargil with a comfortable 5,167 vote lead over her nearest rival.  This will be her second term in government.

 

23:41 Winston Peters has lost the Northland seat to National

 

23:33 From the crowd: “Bill you’re a rock star!”

“There was some real pressure, some real competition. And the more there was the better we responded.”

“Finally, to my family who took some part in the campaign. Thank you for the inspiration and the support…thank you for the love and the determination you shared with over one million New Zealanders tonight, that we can negotiate to be the governing party of New Zealand.”

“Being in government in New Zealand is not about us. It’s about delivering for New Zealand. It’s about delivering for every New Zealander. It’s about our mission to strengthen the economy and change lives one by one if that’s what it takes.”

“That result is pretty good.”

 

23:17 Bill English gives his speech.

“The voters have spoken and now we have the responsibility of giving New Zealanders a strong and stable govt.”

“Let’s just talk tonight to celebrate the hard work and success of the National Party”

“It’s not so much the numbers that matter, but the confidence in the direction of this proud and small country.”

“I want to congratulate Labour and  Jacinda Ardern on their result and thank them for a hard fought campaign.”

“This election campaign has motivated and engaged more NZers than a campaign I can remember…”

“Supporting the most vulnerable, protecting the environment and supporting the regions. It’s important that all New Zealanders can achieve their potential.”

“I want to acknowledge the strong performance of Winston Peters and NZ First.”

Mr English says he will be speaking with Mr Peters over the next couple of days.

“We don’t need to rush this process.”

 

23:04 That was not a concession speech from Jacinda Ardern and Labour.

It looks more than likely Chloe Swarbrick will be off to Parliament. She will be the youngest MP in 42 years.

 

22:53  Labour’s Jacinda Ardern is addressing supporters.

“I’ve come off the field knowing I’ve given my all.”

“It wasn’t just people but whole communities that inspired me.”

“I haven’t done as well for them as I would have liked,”

From the crowd : “YES. YOU. HAVE! <Crowd cheers>”

“The decision will be made by MMP”

“We commit to hold on to the issues to make a future that NZ can be proud of.”

“We will do everything we can to work with any party that shares our believe that NZ be better. That the future can be better.”

“We will remain relentlessly positive.”

“I am committed to a future that we can all be proud of. A future that is better. SO LET’S KEEP DOING THIS.”

Photo Credit: RNZ via Twitter

 

22:30 Green Party leader James Shaw has thanked the party faithful at Auckland’s St Matthew in the City.

Explaining he will speak with Jacinda Ardern tomorrow, he seems upbeat and optimistic.

Was this a victory speech without a clear victory?
Certainly a bold step to take even if The Greens have picked up a seat taking them to 8, while National have dropped from 58 to 57 likely seats in the house.

The first party to gain 60 will be able to lead the government.

21.50 Don’t Call Me – I’ll Call You

Winston Peters announced to media that he was off to catch a ferry home to Paihia, burying the lead that was he wouldn’t be making a decision as to who NZ First would align with for at least a couple of days.

Is he going fishing?
Or just taking time to consider his choices very carefully?

His message was clear: he would not be rushed by media or anyone else.

Photo credit: RNZ via Twitter

 

21.47 Rongotai’s farewell to Annette King is just what she wanted.

With 70% of the votes counted, Rongotai is clearly staying in Labour’s hands with Paul Eagle leading by 6,522 votes over National’s Chris Finlayson. Unlike last election, when National carried off the Party Vote mantle in the electorate Labour is ahead with 43% of the votes counted.

 

21.40 National is two seats away from being able to lead without a coalition.

 

21.32 It looks as if Epsom has once again returned David Seymour to parliament.
He’ll be there on his own, ACT are sitting at 0.5% of the party vote.
A rightwing libertarian, there is little doubt that Mr Seymour will pledge ACT’s support to National, extending their lead to 59 seats.

 

21.25 Northland without Winston? Could it happen?
With only 31% of the votes counted, National’s Matt King is ahead of Winston Peters by a tiny 151 votes. (SM)

 

21.20 Advanced Vote Counters have been very busy bees tonight. 89% of the advanced votes have been counted, with results following a very similar pattern to today’s results.

21.03 47% votes counted

With 47% of votes counted, it looks as if once again Winston Peters & NZ First could be the deciding party in who will lead the NZ government.

Current Speculation:
National is on 58 seats
Labour 45 + Greens 7 = 52 NZ First = 9 combined …. 61

ACT is likely to have 1 seat, however it won’t make enough of a difference to change things either way.

21:10 ChCh Central:
Labour’s Duncan Webb is ahead of the incumbent Earthquake Restoration Minister, Nicky Wagner. Webb is well known throughout Canterbury as a post earthquake dispute expert. Is this another way for the people of Christchurch to say they are dissatisfied with how the rebuild has been handled by National?

20.41 Just over 85% of those 1.2 million advance votes have been counted already.

Here’s how the results look there:
• National Party 45.8%, projected seats 57
• Labour Party 36.4%, projected seats 45
• New Zealand First 7.1-%, projected seats 9
• Green party 6.3%, projected seats 8
• ACT 0.5, projected seats 1
The Opportunities party on 2% and Māori party on 1.1% so far haven’t crossed the 5% threshold for a seat in parliament.
ACT has a lower percentage of votes so far but is expected to win an electorate (constituency) seat.      (Guardian.co.uk)

 

20.31pm ChCh Central: Labour’s Duncan Webb (post-Earthquake dispute Lawyer) ahead of Earthquake Restoration Minister Nicky Wagner.  (RNZ)

 

20.18 RNZ Live Cross says students in Otago are voting National and TOP because they don’t agree with Labours Free Education policy.

 

20:15 The outlook for Tamati Coffey is fine (for now).

“With 17.6 per cent of the votes counted, Labour’s Coffey has 3165 votes and the Maori Party co-leader Te Ururoa Flavell has 2623.” (NZ Herald)

 

20:05 Todd McClay takes an early lead in Rotorua

“After 15.5% of the vote counted McClay is leading with 4682 with Sandford on 2947.” (NZ Herald)

 

19:35 Steven Joyce talking with Sky News indicates he’s nervous despite his party’s early lead.

“This is way too early. I have all sorts of scenarios running through my head.

It’s a good start … we just have to wait and see.

The complicating thing … is all these advance votes.”

 

19:15 First votes are in

 

 

4.45: NewsWire student journalist Elijah Hill was in the Hutt South electorate talking to voters, and came across a good election feed:

The NewsWire team is:

 

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