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Monday, 11 December 2017 06:33 pm

Is there one last special vote twist remaining in this election?

Sep 24th, 2017 | By | Category: Front Page Layout, Latest News, News

Tonight’s results suggest an historic fourth term National government, but people will be cautious to declare it an outright victory over the next few weeks.

This was an election campaign full of unexpected twists and turns.

We saw three leaders fall, and briefly, so did New Zealand’s relationship with Australia over a citizenship debacle.

The Māori Party is no longer in Parliament, and for a moment it looked like the Greens wouldn’t be either, though they clawed their way back.

Currently, National is on 46%, 10 points higher than Labour which is sitting on 36%.

Combine that with the Greens and the left has 42%, still trailing National.

New Zealand First has 8%, and remains the kingmaker, as both parties need Winston Peters to bump them up over that all important 50%.

It is likely that Winston Peters will begin negations with National, the party polling the highest on the night.

National is likely to concede to New Zealand First’s bottom lines.

It has lost two coalition partners with United Future and the Māori Party not making it back to Parliament, and so its only coalition option is with Winston Peters.

National is also likely to keep its supply and confidence agreement with ACT.

Labour would need a three way coalition with the Greens and New Zealand First to govern, and would still only just make it to 50%.

The major question remains though, is the ‘youth quake’ coming.

Bernard Hickey suggested that it might be in a Newsroom article on the day before election day.

If people enrol at the same time as voting at advance voting stations, it is considered a special vote, which will not be released until October 7.

In his article Hickey suggests those enrolment figures may point to a higher youth voter turnout than anticipated, which could sway the direction of the election.

Labour would only have to track up a few points and National down a few, for the election to have a different result.

It would only be fitting if such an intense and unusual campaign had an ending to match.

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